Real Estate Prices Stable in the Tri-Valley

Despite dreary single-family home price figures around the country, the latest numbers indicate that the Tri-Valley market is relatively stable, and in some experts’ opinions actually healthy.

That is a far cry from a recent CNN report that indicated home prices are down to levels not seen since 2002. CNN cited the S&P/Case-Shiller national home price index released on May 31.

“From a price standpoint, I think it is relatively healthy,” said David Stark, the Bay East Association of Realtors’ public affairs director.

“If you are currently a homeowner and you are concerned about the value of your house dropping, things were pretty stable (in 2010 and this year).”

“Pretty much all over the Tri-Valley, prices have stabilized,” said Tony Crumrine, a realtor associate and loan originator for Realty World Town and Country in Pleasanton.

Bay East figures, however, show that although prices in the Tri-Valley are up slightly in 2010 and 2011 and may have stabilized, prices are still down from 2006 – before the economy tanked.

According to Bay East, the median price for a single-family house in 2010 was $742,000 in Pleasanton compared to well above $800,000 in 2006.  That is significantly higher than 2002 level of the mid-$500,000 range.

“In 2010 it went to $742,000 (in Pleasanton). That was the most significant increase,” Stark said. “The prices are pretty much the same from January 2010 to March of this year.”

In Dublin, the median price in 2006 was in the mid-$700,000 range but by 2010 it dropped to slightly more than $600,000. And in Livermore, the median price was in the mid-$600,000 range in 2006. The median price for a home in Livermore last year was above $400,000, and slightly more than 2002 levels.

“When you listen to the TV and radio, they tell you prices are going down, but I haven’t seen that,” said Susette Clark-Walker, a realtor with J. Rockcliff Realtors. 

“It is hard to say what is driving our median home price.”

But the number of short sales and foreclosures in the area has no doubt had some impact on prices, she said.

Home prices may have rebounded, but real estate in the Tri-Valley appears to be staying on the market longer.

According to Bay East, at the start of 2010 it took an average of 40 days to sell a house and by the end of the year that number climbed to 65 days. It has gone down to about 45 days.

Crumrine said the number of days houses stay on the market could be misleading because realtors know how to play tricks with the listings. They can change the address by taking out whether it is a lane, road, or make other modifications that would indicate the property was just put on the market when it has actually been up for sale for months.

Although realtors and Bay East agree it appears to be a healthy market, there is some difference of opinion on whether it is a buyer’s or a seller’s market.

“It’s more of a buyer’s market,” Crumrine said.

But the increased paperwork and documentation needed to get home loans has made it more difficult for buyers, Crumrine added.

Jean-Paul Raut agrees that it is a homebuyers’ market. He put his home of 36 years in Pleasanton on the market two weeks ago and did some research beforehand. He wants to live closer to his grandchildren in Southern California.

 “We’ve had plenty of interest,” Raut said. “It’s a buyer’s market to be sure. Potential buyers are more picky.”

Despite it being a buyer’s market, Raut is optimistic that he will get around the $609,000 asking price for his 1,800-square-foot ranch-style home near a park and schools on Denker Drive. He has poured money into upgrading the house from redoing the kitchen and the landscaping.

Bay East officials said they believe it’s a seller’s market based on the Tri-Valley housing supply.

Any market with less than a three  months supply is a seller’s market, and from Danville to Livermore there was rarely a month where the supply of housing on the market was more than 2.7 months in all of 2010 and in the first quarter of 2011, Stark said.

“Historically it should mean prices should be going through the roof and they are not,” Stark said.

“Prices aren’t going through the roof because it’s harder to close transactions and it’s harder to get a loan. Even though we have a restricted supply and sellers should be able to ask what they want, because of financing they aren’t getting it.”